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Finance & Markets
Markets, decoded.
Understand the global economy · Analyse the forces at play · Trade with a grounded bias
Understand the global economy · Analyse the forces at play · Trade with a grounded bias
Financial markets reflect millions of human, political and economic decisions. Here are the 4 essential mechanisms to master.
The economy works like a circuit: households work for companies, which pay them wages, which they spend on goods and services — and the cycle repeats.
The Fed (USA) and the ECB (Europe) control interest rates to manage inflation and support growth. This is the most powerful lever on markets.
Wars, sanctions and tensions between countries disrupt supply chains, push up commodity prices and trigger flows towards safe-haven assets.
Assets don't move independently. Understanding their links — direct or inverse — allows you to anticipate movements and avoid traps.
| Asset | Ticker | Relationship | Logic | Current context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar (DXY) | TVC:DXY | INVERSE | Gold denominated in $. Strong dollar = gold more expensive for foreigners = less demand | DXY ~104 — pressure on gold, oil and emerging markets |
| Fed Rate (Fed Funds) | TVC:FEDFUNDS | INVERSE | Fed rate rises → opportunity cost of holding gold increases → rotation to bonds | 3.25-3.50% — status quo. Cuts expected H2 2026 |
| US 10-year rate | TVC:US10Y | INVERSE | 10Y rate rises → bonds attractive → capital leaves gold and equities | ~4.40% — high level, headwind for S&P500 and gold |
| US 30-year rate | TVC:US30Y | INVERSE | Long-term US debt barometer. High = distrust of US finances = gold as safe haven | ~4.80% — caution signal on US debt |
| Oil (Brent) | TVC:UKOIL | DIRECT | Oil rises → inflation rises → Fed keeps rates high (paradox for gold) | ~$82 — OPEC+ maintaining cuts, Middle East tense |
| S&P500 | FOREXCOM:SPXUSD | VARIABLE | Risk-on: equities rise, gold falls. Crisis: both can fall then gold recovers | Slight inverse short-term correlation |
| Geopolitics (VIX) | TVC:VIX | DIRECT | Fear rises → VIX rises → flows to safe havens (gold, CHF, JPY, T-bonds) | VIX ~18 — relative calm despite tensions |
| Bond ETF (TLT) | NASDAQ:TLT | DIRECT | TLT rises = rates fall = favourable environment for gold | Watch TLT as a leading indicator of rates |
The PPI measures what factories pay to produce (raw materials, energy, transport). It's the first link in the chain: if production costs explode today, checkout prices will follow in 4 to 8 weeks. You know it before everyone else.
The CPI measures what consumers pay at the supermarket, for housing, transport. It confirms (or contradicts) what the PPI had signalled. Problem: at this stage, markets have already partially priced in the information — you're late if you wait for the CPI.
The Fed prefers PCE Core to CPI because it excludes one-off spikes (energy, food) and smooths underlying trends. It is this single figure that truly determines whether Jerome Powell raises, cuts or freezes rates at the next FOMC meeting.
The rate decision is the final detonator. Dollar, bonds, equities, gold, crypto — everything reacts in cascade. But if you read the PPI correctly 6 weeks earlier, you're no longer surprised. You're already positioned.
You now understand the mechanics of the economy. It's time to discover which strategy suits you — and learn to apply it from tomorrow.
Select an asset to get today's bias, the factors driving it and its real-time chart.
Today's bias tells you the direction. But without a structured method tailored to your profile, you're flying blind. The guide gives you precise entry, exit and risk management rules.
5 questions · 2 minutes · Discover the trading style suited to your time, capital and psychology. Receive your personalised guide.
| Date | Event | Forecast | Actual | Impact | Assets |
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| Date | Event | Forecast | Importance | Assets affected |
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Every macro publication is a trading opportunity. Without a clear method, it becomes a trap. Your personalised guide gives you the exact rules to apply before, during and after every news release.